Friday, 24 July 2015
We're in luck, we make good time and we settle in for the night at Keswick. We are constantly monitoring weather forecasts on Windyty.com, windguru.com and the Bureau of meteorology site and we're aware that strong winds 25-30 knots SE are expected to hit late Monday 27th, lasting three or four days. We can't sail or motor directly into those kinds of winds and need to find a safe anchorage to wait it out.
Considering all our options we decide that Island Head Creek will be our best option, about 110 nautical miles to the southeast. In favourable conditions we could sail 6-8 knots/hr, making it a 14 hour passage at best. We could do it in stages leaving tomorrow, Saturday, sailing only in daylight hours and arrive on Monday morning.
Light winds are forecast for Saturday, Sunday and most of Monday, reducing our chances of making good time. Motoring and adverse currents could reduce our speed to 3 or 4 knots per hour, or worse. We'll sleep on it.